UEFA Champions League predictions, picks for Real Madrid-Atalanta

 An injury riddled Real Madrid managed a road victory in the first leg and is back at full strength for Tuesday's Round of 16 decider against Atalanta in the 2020-21 UEFA Champions League. Real Madrid is in third place in La Liga, six points behind crosstown rival Atletico. Los Blancos beat Elche 2-1 on Saturday after consecutive 1-1 draws in league play. Atalanta has won three of its four league matches since the setback against Real Madrid and is fourth in Serie A.       

Kickoff is set for 4 p.m. ET at Estadio Alfredo Di Stefano in Madrid. Real Madrid is a +108 money-line favorite in the latest Atalanta vs. Real Madrid odds at William Hill Sportsbook, and the over-under for total goals scored is 2.5. Before you make any Real Madrid vs. Atalanta picks, be sure to see the UEFA Champions League predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proprietary European soccer model.

Created by two Norwegians -- professional poker player and sports bettor Jonas Gjelstad, and economics and engineering expert Marius Norheim -- the model analyzes worldwide betting data and exploits market inefficiencies, helping its followers cash in. Since coming to SportsLine in 2019, the algorithm is up almost $8,100.

Now, the model has set its sights on Real Madrid vs. Atalanta. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are several odds and trends for Atalanta vs. Real Madrid:

  • Atalanta vs. Real Madrid spread: Madrid -0.5
  • Atalanta vs. Real Madrid over-under: 2.5 goals
  • Atalanta vs. Real Madrid money line: Atalanta +240, Real Madrid +108, Draw +260
  • ATA: Atalanta has lost just twice away from home all season in Serie A
  • REAL: Real Madrid is unbeaten in its last eight matches at home
  • Latest Odds: Real Madrid -0.5

    Why you should back Real Madrid

    Los Blancos got past Atalanta in the opening leg despite being without major contributors Karim Benzema and Sergio Ramos. Benzema is the team's top scorer and is tied for third in La Liga with 15 goals and has four in this tournament. He could find openings against an Atalanta team that will be chasing goals Tuesday and typically presses forward, leaving the defense vulnerable. Atalanta has allowed 34 goals in 27 league games and nine in its seven UCL matches.

    Real Madrid has a ton of depth, especially with Eden Hazard, Rodrygo and Marco Asensio all returning. Top-flight midfielders Toni Kroos and Luka Modric, who have a combined 11 assists, both rested for most of Saturday's game, and they should find lanes for through balls to Benzema. They also are among the 11 Real Madrid players who have scored, combining for six goals. Benzema and Rodrygo are tied for second behind Kroos with five assists apiece in league play.

    Why you should back Atalanta 

    Real Madrid also is known for an attacking style that puts pressure on its defense, and Atalanta has the firepower to make the Spanish side pay. Atalanta is second in Serie A with 63 goals, scoring 29 more than it has allowed. Luis Muriel is third in the league with 16 goals and shares the team lead with seven assists. Josip Ilicic and Duvan Zapata also have seven assists and have combined for 14 goals in Serie A. Those three players have scored six of the team's 10 UCL goals.   

    Atalanta has won five straight Champions League games on the road, outscoring its opponents 14-3, while Real Madrid is winless in its last four UCL knockout-stage games at home. Atalanta has scored 21 goals over its last nine games in all competitions and has lost just seven times in its last 30 matches overall.     

    How to make picks for Real Madrid vs. Atalanta

    The model is leaning over on the total, and it's also locked in a strong money line pick for Atalanta vs. Real Madrid. You can only get that pick at SportsLine.

    So who wins Real Madrid vs. Atalanta? And where does all the betting value lie? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Atalanta vs. Real Madrid money line has all the value, all from the proprietary European soccer model that's up almost $8,100.